Autumn 2018 Economic Forecast: sustained but less dynamic growth amid high uncertainty

Growth in the Euro area is forecast to ease from a 10-year high of 2.4% in 2017 to 2.1% in 2018 before moderating further to 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. The same pattern is expected for the EU27, with growth forecast at 2.2% in 2018, 2.0% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020.

Last year’s exceptionally benign global situation helped to underpin strong economic activity and investment in the EU and euro area. Despite a more uncertain environment, all Member States are forecast to continue growing, though at a slower pace, thanks to the strength of domestic consumption and investment. Barring major shocks, Europe should be able to sustain above-potential economic growth, robust job creation and falling unemployment. However, this baseline scenario is subject to a growing number of interconnected downside risks.

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