World’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target


Hundreds of the world’s leading climate scientists expect global temperatures to rise to at least 2.5 ‘C (4.5F) above preindustrial levels this century, blasting past internationally agreed targets and causing catastrophic consequences for humanity and the planet, an exclusive Guardian survey has revealed.

Almost 80% of the respondents, all from the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), foresee at least 2.5 ‘C of global heating, while almost half anticipate at least 3 ‘C (5.4F). Only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5 ‘C (2.7F) limit would be met.

Many of the scientists envisage a “semi-dystopian” future, with famines, conflicts and mass migration, driven by heatwaves, wildfires, floods and storms of an intensity and frequency far beyond those that have already struck.

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